Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 31.699535 37.643193 44.161373 51.809591 60.505887 70.054001 81.296873
2025-01-26 23.503127 31.526460 41.184405 53.529078 68.739678 86.713676 109.390407
2025-02-02 19.663849 28.914697 40.843277 57.050621 78.161308 104.369024 138.960827
2025-02-09 16.429898 26.197568 39.566307 58.691448 84.769185 118.457199 164.539896
2025-02-16 13.869546 23.825777 38.208593 59.745131 90.299460 131.130747 188.684125
2025-02-23 11.579810 21.386989 36.306550 59.623707 93.935038 141.216744 209.672537
2025-03-02 9.515423 18.900521 33.927647 58.407978 95.706774 148.608590 227.129180
2025-03-09 8.057448 17.139254 32.387859 58.185176 98.734898 157.731300 247.220880
2025-03-16 6.337394 14.581121 29.184332 54.944301 96.833097 159.469004 256.699254
2025-03-23 5.685827 13.891295 29.025671 56.561721 102.461264 172.462552 282.933844
2025-03-30 4.777333 12.514967 27.462502 55.624528 103.879325 179.090164 299.941558
2025-04-06 4.440463 12.266916 27.921022 58.186040 111.100082 194.882134 331.262180
2025-04-13 3.395842 10.315597 25.029600 54.776581 108.603815 196.127144 341.720752
2025-04-20 3.015805 9.834086 24.997576 56.654136 115.349135 212.580781 376.777902
2025-04-27 2.835303 9.806075 25.888735 60.346038 125.487838 235.000198 422.138055
2025-05-04 2.521805 9.348437 25.785430 62.063849 132.176748 252.015357 459.527075
2025-05-11 2.209048 8.806399 25.406236 63.166615 137.776869 267.424057 494.879391
2025-05-18 1.869084 8.081252 24.485953 63.039546 141.039287 278.964685 524.299466
2025-05-25 1.525555 7.226490 23.105581 61.767164 141.990158 286.499919 547.303514
2025-06-01 1.285015 6.628452 22.255764 61.533956 144.889506 297.511672 576.473715
2025-06-08 0.967228 5.611376 20.116533 58.140849 141.238045 296.629167 585.315470
2025-06-15 0.870170 5.417647 20.180781 59.834447 147.957214 314.726042 627.403223
2025-06-22 0.709205 4.880463 19.170157 58.853164 149.068669 322.565129 651.874032